According to the most recent World Trade Organization Yearbook (World Trade Statistical Review 2019), world commodity exports increased by 10% in 2018, mainly due to the rise in the price of oil and its products. In volume, the performance was much more modest and lower than 2017: +2.8%.

The ranking of the world's largest good exporters remained fairly stable from 2017 to 2018. China was still the leader, with 10% growth in value in 2018. Then came the United States, Germany, Japan, and the Netherlands. On the imports side, there was also stability in the world ranking, with the United States leading.

While the top positions remained unchanged, Brazil was once again downgraded in the ranking of top exporters, although its foreign sales of goods grew 10% (to US$ 240 billion) from 2017 to 2018. It went down one notch during the period, taking the 27th position. Our retrogression is clear: 5 positions lost in 10 years, as we were the 22nd largest exporter of goods in 2008, and the disparity with the size of our economy only widens, as we have the 9th largest GDP in the world.

When it comes to imports of goods, Brazil is moving in another direction. It rose from 29th to 28th, due to a 20% increase in the value of imported goods (US$ 189 billion). It should be noted, however, that the recent 2015–2016 crisis and the very slow subsequent recovery led the country to go down some steps in the ranking. In 2014, for example, we were the 22nd largest importer of goods.

If the picture is not encouraging for goods in general, what about manufacturing goods? Although we have the 9th largest industrial park in the world, corresponding to 1.83% of global industrial GDP, we were only 32nd in the ranking of manufacturing exports in 2018, with a 0.62% share of the total. We lost one position in relation to 2017 and three in comparison to 2008. Ten years ago, however, we were responsible for 0.81% of global manufacturing exports.

This is because, in the last decade, we advanced much less than other countries in manufacturing exports. Despite registering an average annual growth rate in line with the world total in 2008-2018— +1.9% versus +1.8% per year, respectively—we lagged behind many major emerging markets, such as China (+5.6% pa), India (+5.3% pa) and Mexico (+4.5% pa), among others. Were it not for our competitiveness and productivity problems that accumulate along industrial chains, the story would be different.

As a result, the share of manufacturing goods in Brazil's export basket is falling: from 44% in 2008 to 35% in 2017 and then to 34% in 2018. Primary goods are moving in the opposite direction and gaining ground. For no other reason, Brazil has established itself as a world leader only in exports of primary goods, especially agricultural, or of manufactures linked to natural-wealth-based sectors in which we have revealed competitiveness. We are the 3rd largest exporter of food and agricultural products, the largest exporter of soybeans and the 8th in iron and steel.

In contrast, from 2017 to 2018, Brazil rose from 30th to 28th among the world's largest importers of manufactures, evidencing its role as a greater absorber of industrial products than exporter. The Brazilian trade balance in this type of goods is traditionally negative and its deficit has widened again after the recent years of crisis.

Manufactures accounted for 72% of our imports of goods in 2018, versus 71% in 2017. The highlight in the group of manufactures was transport equipment, representing 15% of the total imported in 2018, the highest percentage since 2008. In turn, fuels and minerals maintained a share of 17% in 2017 and 2018, while agricultural products and food fell from 8% to 6%.

It is also important to note that in the case of manufacturing goods, the top-10 ranking of exporters remained unchanged between 2017 and 2018, led by China (with 18% growth in dollars), Germany, the USA, Japan and South Korea. Regarding the ranking of manufacturing imports, the United States was the first in 2018, with variation of 7.2%. Then came China, Germany, Japan and France—as in 2017.

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